A nationalist challenger hostile to Poland’s centrist government has scraped out a razor-thin victory in a runoff election for the presidency, dealing a sharp blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, according to official results released Monday.
The newly elected president, Karol Nawrocki — a historian and former boxer — won 50.9 percent of the vote on Sunday. Backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, Nawrocki's win injects fresh energy into the growing wave of right-wing populism across Europe. Notably, former President Donald Trump endorsed Nawrocki ahead of the vote.
Nawrocki edged out Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and the candidate supported by Tusk’s Civic Platform party, who secured 49.1 percent of the vote.
This outcome sets the stage for a deep political divide in Poland, with two opposing power hubs — the presidency and the government — now tugging the country in different directions.
Both camps stand united in supporting Ukraine with military aid in its fight against Russia, and in strengthening Poland’s armed forces. But when it comes to domestic issues, their visions clash — especially on abortion, which was virtually outlawed during Law and Justice’s eight-year reign.
The Polish runoff followed closely after Romanian voters recently rejected a nationalist contender, sparking hope among Polish liberals that the tide of right-wing populism might be turning. Nawrocki’s win, however, quickly dashed those hopes — a disappointment not only for pro-European factions in Poland but also for mainstream forces in the European Union, many of whom have aligned with Tusk, a former top EU official.
Though the Polish president doesn't dictate economic or general policy — that authority belongs to Tusk and his ministers — the presidency does hold veto power, which can severely disrupt the government's plans. Since becoming prime minister in December 2023 after Law and Justice lost its parliamentary majority, Tusk has already faced legislative roadblocks.
The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, a staunch ally of Law and Justice, frequently used his veto to block Tusk’s laws or sent them to courts packed with loyalist judges. Term limits prevented Duda from seeking another term.
Now, with Nawrocki stepping in as Duda’s successor, political gridlock is likely to intensify, stalling Tusk’s ambitions further. While Tusk's broad coalition — a mix of liberals, leftists, and moderate conservatives — holds a parliamentary majority, it falls short of the three-fifths threshold needed to override a presidential veto.
Nawrocki, a tough, newcomer to politics, shows no signs of backing laws previously blocked by Duda — particularly reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence. This includes overhauling the constitutional court, which the European Court of Human Rights condemned for its irregular appointments during the previous administration.
Nawrocki’s campaign enjoyed strong support from international conservatives, especially Trump loyalists. Days before the election, Kristi Noem, Trump’s former homeland security secretary, addressed voters at a CPAC conference near Rzeszow, urging them to reject Trzaskowski, whom she labeled a “socialist” and a “train wreck of a leader.”
Among the attendees was George Simion, the Romanian nationalist who recently lost to Bucharest’s centrist mayor. At CPAC, he warned of a supposed “globalist” scheme to “steal” Poland’s election.
This was the first time CPAC held an event in Poland, a clear sign that global conservatives viewed this election as a critical test of their movement’s strength.
Trump also gave Nawrocki a symbolic boost by hosting him in the Oval Office last month and posing for a thumbs-up photo.
In the first round of the election on May 18, Trzaskowski had finished just ahead of Nawrocki in a field of 13 candidates. But in the runoff, it was clear that votes from far-right candidates shifted toward Nawrocki, propelling him to a narrow victory.