At Donald Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans are preparing to redraw the state’s congressional map in an aggressive move to snatch up to five new congressional seats. But what might look like a power play on paper could end up blowing up in their faces — especially as it undermines the influence of the state’s booming non-white population and possibly triggers legal and political backlash.
This mid-decade redistricting push is being widely criticized as a blatant, undemocratic power grab, allowing politicians to essentially handpick their voters instead of the other way around. The GOP, led by Trump and national Republicans, is making this push because the party holds a slim 220-212 edge in the U.S. House. With midterms looming — historically rough terrain for the president’s party — they’re desperate to bulk up their numbers.
But make no mistake: this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble.
Currently, Republicans control 25 out of Texas’s 38 congressional districts, a dominance that was meticulously engineered during the 2021 redistricting. Back then, the focus wasn’t on expanding power — it was on solidifying existing Republican seats.
Now, to grab more ground, the GOP must dilute strongholds by redistributing voters from safe Republican districts into ones currently held by Democrats. It’s a strategy that might win them seats — but also weakens their own turf, making it easier for Democrats to flip seats in a strong year.
As David Wasserman, senior analyst at the Cook Political Report, puts it, “How many seats the GOP can gain depends entirely on how much risk they’re willing to take. Three flips are likely achievable. Four or five? That’s where things start to unravel.”
Let’s not forget: in 2021, the GOP already watered down the political power of non-white communities, despite the fact that 95% of Texas’s population growth over the last decade came from these very voters. And if Republicans go for five more seats, experts warn it would come at the direct cost of minority voting rights.
“The current maps are already blatantly racist and violate the rights of voters of color across Texas,” said Anthony Gutierrez, Executive Director of Common Cause Texas. “Adding five more Republican districts would mean stomping over minority representation.”
So, which seats are on the chopping block? According to Wasserman, two south Texas districts, currently represented by Democrats Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, are the top targets — districts Trump won in 2024. With a few tweaks, the GOP could potentially flip them with ease. Over in Houston, Democrats hold four seats, and Republicans may try to poach one or two more, depending on how aggressive they choose to be.
All of this political maneuvering is unfolding as Texas reels from catastrophic floods that killed at least 134 people, with over 100 still missing. Amid the chaos, Democrats in the Texas legislature are even considering walking out of the special session to block the redistricting vote. But Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton says he’ll “hunt down” absent lawmakers and force them back to the Capitol.
So, what’s the justification for this sudden redistricting frenzy? According to Governor Greg Abbott, it stems from a 7 July letter by the Department of Justice (DoJ), alleging that Texas officials illegally used race in the current map-drawing process. Abbott’s fast embrace of this letter has left many baffled.
“My jaw dropped when I saw that letter,” said Mark Gaber, an attorney with the Campaign Legal Center. “Either witnesses lied under oath, or the entire premise for this redistricting is a political charade.”
The DoJ claims that in four districts, voters were unconstitutionally sorted by race. In two of these, different groups of minorities form a majority that can elect their preferred candidate. One district is majority Hispanic, and another was drawn after previous racial discrimination findings.
However, several legal experts argue these claims are legally shaky.
“The DoJ letter is fiction and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the law,” said Thomas Saenz, president and general counsel of MALDEF, which is challenging the current map. “They should be careful — some could face perjury charges for their previous testimony.”
Others, like Michael Li from the Brennan Center, caution that mapmakers may have kept communities together for reasons unrelated to race. Meanwhile, Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor who previously worked on voting rights at both the DoJ and White House, called the letter “complete nonsense.”
“They’re basically saying that having multiple minority groups in a district is unconstitutional. That’s seven kinds of wrong,” he said.
Final Word:
Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous political game, gambling with democracy, minority voting rights, and their own stability. The outcome? It could either solidify Trump’s control — or spark a historic backlash that flips the script entirely.