Trump’s 50% Tariffs on Brazil Coffee Shake New York Cafes: Survival at Stake
The Trump administration has hit Brazil with a crushing 50% US tariff, and the ripple effects are already being felt in New York City coffee shops, where owners warn their survival is on the line.
At Stone Street Cafe in Manhattan, managing partner Antony Garrigues admitted he was first “confused” and then “terrified” when the tariff announcement landed. Coffee shops already operate on razor-thin margins, and the extra costs could tip many into disaster.
“If these tariffs are long term, our business is in jeopardy,” Garrigues said. “In New York City, operating costs are already sky high. Add tariffs, and everything becomes unaffordable. If people can’t pay for our coffee, and we lose our profit margin, we simply won’t survive.”
Coffee Chains Face Global Pressure
Stone Street sources beans from over 35 countries, including Brazil, but it’s not just Brazil under pressure. Other coffee powerhouses like Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia are also caught in Trump’s tariff dragnet.
“These tariffs don’t hit governments – they hit business owners and consumers,” Garrigues explained. “We’ll try to absorb what we can, but at the end of the day, we’re a business. Prices may have to go up.”
Meanwhile, climate change has already driven up global coffee prices, leaving cafe owners with little room to maneuver.
Cafes Scramble to Survive Tariff Shock
In Brooklyn, Ciao Gloria is also struggling. Owner Renato Poliafito, who imports both Brazilian cocoa and Italian jams, has already raised prices by 25 cents per cup.
“I’m basically selling sugar and caffeine – like a legal drug dealer,” Poliafito joked. But he quickly turned serious: “We have to be cautious before raising prices further. Customers are already noticing.”
Official data shows US coffee prices jumped 14.5% year-over-year by July, leaving many New Yorkers rethinking their daily ritual.
Helina Seyoum, 29, now makes coffee at home. “A cup of coffee shouldn’t feel like a luxury item – but it’s becoming one, and that’s scary.”
For others, like Aley Longo, 28, coffee was once an “affordable escape” from the grind of a studio apartment. Now, it’s a weekend-only treat.
“Trump’s tariffs are bad for Americans and our quality of life,” Longo said. “Something as small as coffee is suddenly a burden.”
Cafe Owners on Edge
Cafe owners across NYC say they feel trapped. Allon Azulai, owner of Kos Kaffe, now dreads calling suppliers. “Every week, prices change. Tariffs make everything unstable, and small cafes without deep pockets won’t survive.”
The pressure isn’t just domestic. Coffee producers in Brazil – the world’s largest supplier – say the tariffs create a “clear competitive disadvantage” against rivals like Colombia and Vietnam, which face lower US rates between 10–27%.
“This decision not only hurts the Brazilian coffee industry, but also harms American consumers, who rely on affordable, high-quality beans,” said Brazil’s Soluble Coffee Industry Association.
Brazilian exporters are lobbying for exemptions, arguing the US doesn’t grow coffee at scale. If not, they hope to cut the tariff to 10%, matching other Brazilian exports like oil and orange juice.
But for now, coffee shipments are stuck in warehouses, and exporters are losing money.
Global Rivals See Opportunity
In Vietnam, Lacàph Coffees founder Timen Swijtink warned: “Any tariff cost goes straight to the American consumer.” Even at 20% tariffs, Vietnam’s resilient farmers are eyeing new markets in China, where demand is skyrocketing.
In Colombia, where tariffs are just 10%, coffee growers are cautiously optimistic. José David Posada, a fourth-generation farmer, admitted: “Brazil’s higher tariffs give us an advantage – at least for now.”
Analysts like Guilherme Morya of Rabobank agree: “Colombia gains a price advantage, and as the second-largest supplier, it’s the obvious replacement.” Still, farmers warn the edge may be temporary – coffee trees take years to mature, while tariffs could vanish overnight.
The Reality for Small Cafes
Back in New York, small businesses brace for the worst.
“Tariffs hurt small businesses the most,” Poliafito of Ciao Gloria said. “Big corporations can maneuver. We can’t.”
At Koré Coffee in Manhattan, manager Nick Kim echoed the anxiety: “It’s scary not knowing if we can survive. You see the storm coming, but there’s nothing you can do. We just wait.”