US Emissions Surge Under Trump’s Fossil Fuel Agenda, Raising Alarms for Global Climate Goals
A sharp rise in greenhouse gas pollution in the United States has helped push global emissions higher in the first half of this year — a troubling sign as Donald Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies threaten to stall the progress needed to avoid catastrophic climate impacts, according to a new Rhodium Group forecast.
The report warns that the “most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent history” is now underway since Trump’s return to the White House, slashing the pace of U.S. emissions cuts by nearly half compared to the progress achieved over the past 20 years.
Emissions Cuts Slashed Under Trump
According to the Rhodium analysis, the U.S. is still expected to reduce its planet-heating emissions by 26% to 35% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. But this falls far short of last year’s projections under Joe Biden, which estimated 38% to 56% reductions in the same timeframe.
Even the most optimistic outlook — where renewable energy surges and fossil fuels grow costlier — shows U.S. emissions falling just 43% by 2040, well below Biden’s discarded targets. In the worst-case scenario, emissions could even climb again by the late 2030s.
“This is more than halving the pace of decarbonization we’ve seen over the last two decades,” said Ben King, a Rhodium director. “The U.S. was already off-track — and now we’ve taken a huge step in the wrong direction.”
Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” Push
Under Trump’s aggressive “drill, baby, drill” agenda, the federal government has:
Opened massive areas of land and water for drilling and mining
Abandoned the Paris climate goals
Rolled back regulations designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and toxic air pollutants
Trump has also waged war on clean energy, killing off tax credits for solar, wind, and battery projects through a Republican spending bill, while ordering his administration to halt new renewable facilities — even ones that were already approved and nearly completed.
“We don’t allow windmills and we don’t want the solar panels,” Trump said recently, while praising “beautiful clean coal.”
This anti-renewables stance, fueled by his long-standing dislike of wind turbines, has led to offshore wind farms being scrapped, the cancellation of a battery factory in North Carolina, and the closure of a Michigan plant.
Jobs Lost and Bills Rising
The fallout has been immediate: nearly 65,000 clean energy jobs have been lost or stalled since Trump’s election, according to Climate Power. With renewables on pause, households are seeing electric bills climb, as the U.S. relies more heavily on costly fossil fuels.
“Federal policy obstacles are threatening hundreds of billions in planned energy investments,” warned Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, which reported a 25% drop in solar installations in the first half of 2025.
A Dangerous Signal for the Future
The impact on emissions is already starting to show. In the first six months of 2025, U.S. emissions rose by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2024, according to Climate Trace. A similar rise in Brazil contributed to global emissions climbing higher than last year’s levels — a stark warning as the world prepares for a major UN climate summit in Brazil this November.
“We won’t see the full emissions impact of the Trump administration for a couple of years,” King noted. “But even flatlining emissions is a bad sign — and right now, we’re already seeing the slowdown of renewables.”
The bottom line: America’s retreat from clean energy under Trump has placed the world’s climate goals in jeopardy, weakening global progress at the exact moment bold action is needed most.
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"A new Rhodium Group forecast reveals Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies are slowing U.S. emissions cuts, threatening global climate goals."